Midterm election countdown: Election systems hacked

   Today is October 30th, and there are four days left before the midterm election voting day, November 3rd.

   On the first level, look at money first. 11.6 billion US dollars, advertising alone, is expected to be this amount by the evening of the voting day. That’s 2.7 billion more than the last midterm election, and 400 million more than the presidential election Trump won in 2024.If you spend $2 million, you can probably get 10,000 votes back.

    How many tickets can 11.6 billion "buy"? Of course, the accounts cannot be calculated so simply, but this shows one thing - this is no longer a campaign, this is a capital bet.

    As the old saying goes, before the soldiers and horses are moved, the food and grass go first; now the food and grass are piled up in mountains, and the votes have not been cast yet. With so much money, elections are a bit like an auction house. The donors hold the placards and the people pay the bills.

    At this juncture, something went wrong with the money management system. The Federal Election Commission's electronic filing system was shut down for nearly 41 hours due to a cyber attack and was not restored until the evening of the 28th.

    During these 41 hours, the super PAC was unable to submit 24-hour and 48-hour campaign fund expenditure reports.

The people will not be able to see how much money the big donors spent on whom at the last minute in the days before the voting day. Supervisory agencies are anxious, but it is useless to be anxious. Are you talking about coincidence? Anyway, there are never many such "coincidences" in American elections.

It's hard for a clever woman to cook without rice, but this time there was too much rice, so the lid was put on the pot first. Once the system was shut down, the ledger was blacked out, and the last bit of transparency before the election was also compromised.

   There are two candidates. At one end, Obama comes out. On the 24th, in Cleveland, Ohio, he stood up for the Democratic Senate candidates and cursed the Trump administration in four words: "chaos, cruelty, corruption, and incompetence." He added: "Enough is enough, we're voting for change in Ohio."

It has been almost ten years since Obama left office, but his appeal among the grassroots of the Democratic Party is still top-notch, especially for groups with low turnout and people of color. His words are better than any advertisement.

Harris also went to Georgia on the 29th, shouting about turning "pain into purpose." It’s Musk’s money on one side and Obama’s face on the other. This is an interesting attack and defense. One throws money, the other gets a face, and in the end it depends on who the voters buy.

On the other end of the spectrum is Trump’s own schedule. Data tracked by ABC: From September 9 to October 27, he visited 20 states that he and the Republican Party "used to win easily", and only visited swing states 6 times. Four visits to Texas in seven weeks, twice as many as during the same period in the 2024 election.

What does this mean? It shows that red states are no longer red.

Texas and Kansas were places that were certain in the past, but now the polls are tight. Trump went to red states not to attack, but to put out fires.

If a president spends time guarding his base at the last moment of an election, it is a sign that the election is in danger.

If there is a fire at the door of your house, why would you bother visiting your neighbor's house?

     Musk also spent $445 million this time on a super PAC. One person had nearly $300 million more than the second place, and the largest sum of $158 million went to the "Senate Leadership Fund." Trump called him a "national treasure."

But money has a strange temperament: it can buy advertising, but it cannot buy enthusiasm. On the Democratic side, grassroots small-dollar donations are more popular, and candidate accounts outnumber Republicans in fiercely contested constituencies. Money can push people around, but it can't push people who don't want to go out and vote.

   Redistricting. The theory is pretty good: split up progressive voters, merge them with conservative areas, and draw out a group of new constituencies where "Trump wins by 10 points." Republican candidates should win even if they close their eyes. But reality slapped me in the face. Analysts look at the latest polls and show that the Republican Party is likely to flip blue in 10 of the 15 redistricting districts in Texas and Florida.

What's even more ironic is that the Republican Party hastily spent $150 million on advertising in the "safe zones" it drew for itself, trying to salvage its strategy.

North Carolina's 1st congressional district, I originally thought I had it all in hand, but it turned out that since September, I've spent 20 million on advertising alone. This is called stealing the chicken but losing the rice. California Governor Newsom also drew a favorable picture in his own favor, eliminating a large part of the Republican Party's advantage.

Redistricting was originally the most "legal" cheating in American politics, but this time, the harder it is drawn, the faster the backlash will come.

    Finally, look at Trump’s words, “As long as the election is fair, I will accept the results”—this sentence is still alive. What is justice?

Who defines justice? The “fraud” narrative of 2020 is still going strong. Whether there will be legal battles, recounts, or even something uglier after voting day, no one dares to guarantee their votes.

Finally, let me be honest. 11.6 billion US dollars were spent on advertising, but it was impossible to see where the money went for 41 hours. 445 million was piled up in one person's political ledger. The president was exhausted in red states and drew the constituencies in reverse operations - this account was actually being calculated in the minds of voters. Four days later, let’s see how they settle the accounts with the votes.